|
Regional Aviation
News
Turboprops Retirements Mean Opening For Startups
April 29, 2003
Analysts expect twice as many turboprop retirements during the next year as have left service in the past year and a half, lowering prices sufficiently to give startup airlines the opportunity to pick up aircraft, Alex Najjar, executive VP-Cypress Leasing, said yesterday. Increasingly, he added, the retirements will be absorbed into the cargo industry and offshore, including Latin America, Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia.
Najjar believes turboprop availability will encourage new startups, and during the next three to four years, more recent generation aircraft — built from the late 1980s onward — will become available. Speaking at the Commercial Aviation U.S. Regional Airline Conference, Najjar said 97 turboprops have been retired in the past 12 to 18 months — 28 ATR 42s flown by Continental and American, 17 Saab 340s at Northwest, 16 Embraer 120s at Delta and 11 Fairchild- Dornier 328s at United.
Najjar credited ATR, Beech and Saab with “almost heroic” marketing efforts, which resulted in ATR delivering 66 used turboprops, Saab delivering 77 Beech delivering 56. But he said he did not see “anything for the next 12 months” and noted retirements will double over the next 18 months. Dash 8 retirements have accelerated since the Sept. 11 terror attacks and US Airways intends to move about 85 out of its fleet as it introduces regional jets. SkyWest is looking to reduce its Embraer 130s to 63 but they could retire more depending on what happens at United, Najjar said. American Eagle is also cutting its Saab 340 fleet to 55 and possibly another 60 from its Northwest Airlink operation.
The good news for turboprops is that there could be a need for 600 more over the next 10 years for either cargo or replacement aircraft. Supplemental Type Certificates are available for most turboprop types, and FedEx and other shippers are potential large buyers, Najjar said. Conversion costs vary depending on whether it includes container doors — an ATR 42 conversion runs about $1.5 million with container doors and $500,000 without, he said. He estimated a demand for about 150 ATR 42s over five years. The Fokker 50 conversion will cost about $1.3 million to $1.4 million with container doors and about $400,000 without. The Dash 8-300 retains too much value as a passenger aircraft for cargo conversion, but he estimates that during the next 10 years, airlines will need 75 for cargo purposes. -DM
Source: Aviation Daily, April 29, 2003
|
|
www.RegionalAviationPartners.org |